State of the Force

The Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) is currently facing one of the most challenging times in its history. The Commissioner, Sir Mark Rowley, was appointed in September 2022 with a substantial agenda for change as his brief. One of the fundamental questions to be wrestled with is “what are the trends of crime in London?” An understanding of the nature of crime in London will inform the reform of the MPS now and into the future.

How many crimes occur in London?

The Home Office publishes a rolling three-year crime dataset for England and Wales, which can be filtered for the MPS. Figure 1 below is based on this data, demonstrating the volume of crime recorded for the MPS.

The MPS has seen average monthly recorded crime increasing steadily since the COVID-19 pandemic. If the current observed trajectory continues 2023 could be a record for recorded crime in the capital. This illustrates the scale of the challenge faced by the MPS in tackling crime in London.

What types of crime happen in London?

Our starting point is to analyse the crime mix within London and how it compares to other forces in England and Wales. Figure 2 below shows the type of crime as a proportion of all crime recorded for all reporting Forces versus the MPS.

The MPS crime mix is an outlier to the national split, with much higher proportions of thefts (21% versus 10%) and vehicle crimes (13% versus 6%) recorded. An added element is that thefts have been rapidly increasing as a proportion of the MPS’s recorded crimes over time. In June 2021 thefts accounted for 15% of the MPS’s recorded crimes compared to 24% in May 2023. While theft has been increasing nationally, the rate of growth in theft crimes is much higher for the MPS and is a particular challenge. On the other hand, the proportion of crimes recorded for violent and sexual offences is much lower than the national trend (30% versus 45%).

Where does crime occur in London?

Figure 3 below shows every Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) in England and Wales where more than 10,000 crimes were recorded in the three years since June 2020.

The three LSOAs in England and Wales with the greatest number of crimes recorded in the last three years are all within the MPS’ boundary. Crime will always be geographically focused on urban areas as this is where there is the greatest density of people, places and opportunity occurs, and this is particularly acute for a capital city such as London. However, even within London, there are spatial differences in the volume of crime. These three LSOAs have 92 times more crimes recorded compared to the London average.

It’s clear, therefore, that within London itself there are significant hotspots of crimes recorded. Figure 4 shows a map of the three LSOAs in London described above. The colouring on the map is blue for the lowest number of crimes, and red for the highest. The LSOA identifying code is labelled in white text.

These three LSOAs, covering Oxford Street, Soho and Leicester Square, are some of the busiest shopping and tourism locations in London. The types of crime within this hotspot reflect that theft accounts for 63% of the crimes recorded in these LSOAs, compared to the average across London of theft being 17% of crimes recorded. LSOA E01033596 is an interesting outlier in this locality, which covers the area around Carnaby Street and does not see as much crime as its surrounding LSOAs.

What is the outcome of crime in London?

The Home Office data also provides the outcome of crimes recorded. Figure 5 shows the outcome of the crime recorded as a proportion of all crimes, with “Null” meaning that no outcome is yet recorded.

these within the category “No suspect identified”. If these categories are combined nationally for comparison purposes, the national average is 73% of recorded crime resulting in an outcome of unable to prosecute or no suspect being identified. This compares to the MPS average of 82%. Compared to other Forces, the MPS has less success in positive action outcomes from recorded crime, such as suspects being charged or cautioned.

Figure 6 shows a deep dive into the breakdown of crime types where the outcome is a suspect charged, to give an indication of where the MPS is succeeding at charging suspects and where there may be challenges.

Comparing Figure 6 to Figure 2 illustrates that the MPS are having some success charging drug-related crimes, as these account for 20% of suspect charged outcomes when they are a relatively small proportion of crime recorded in London. Conversely, thefts only account for 3% of suspect charged outcomes, when theft is a rapidly growing segment of the crimes recorded in London, as discussed previously.

Conclusion

While the hurdles the MPS faces are significant and complex, it is possible to analyse the nature of crime in London to inform reform. A significant proportion of London’s crime is theft, particularly in certain exceptionally busy shopping and tourist areas in central London. Added to this, the MPS have a low proportion of suspects charged where the crime recorded was a theft. This is perhaps indicative of a focus on other crimes, such as drugs where there has been visible success in charging suspects, but risks overlooking a rapidly growing crime type in theft and potentially miss an opportunity to deter future growth in this type of crime.

By Sam Faulknall-Mills – Consultant

Life after COVID

Whilst the pandemic was at its peak, national low levels of job movement were observed; with companies reducing in size and a shallow job market, the ‘risk’ of moving jobs seemed to be too high a price for many within the country. Policing however, with its specific training and workstyle could be presumed to be unaffected by the ‘Post Pandemic Shuffle’, but has that been true?

Leaving sooner rather than later?

The common adage is whether Policing is still a ‘career for life’, and for some this may still be true. Different factors however can all affect how any given individual will perceive a career; whether there is enough fiscal value, the interpretation of the role and a number of other factors. The figure below shows the number of leavers, and the proportionate percentage of the leaving reasons on a national scale below, from 2009/10 through to 2022/23.

Whilst a blip is observed in the total FTE of officers leaving at the height of the pandemic in financial year 2020/21, the rate of leavers continues to increase and almost step-change into 22/23. This can largely be attributed to the number of Voluntary Resignations seen across these years, with the number of Voluntary Resignations climbing from 1,200 in 2011/12 to 4,720 in 22/23 (an increase of 3,520 in total and a proportionate growth within all resignations of 26.52%) and becoming the leading cause of leavers as of the past financial year.

What’s also worth noting is that, whilst the proportion of the normal retirement banding is reducing, the total numbers of those type of leavers has stayed relatively consisting, typically within 500 of their previous year, so what roles are making this increase in voluntary resignations?

The main driver of voluntary resignations has always been the constable role, and over the course of the recorded time period, with the exception of a drop from 2009/10 to 11/12, has served mostly to increase within this role. For the past 3 financial years, Constable contributed to over 93% of the FTE lost through voluntary resignation.

A large portion of those recent resignations could be attributed to the officer uplift, metrics from the Home Office saw a number of fluctuations in their force by force ‘Uplift Totals’ prior to their final goal of 20,000. But stress could also play as a factor, the number of Sergeants handing in voluntary resignation, despite that low proportionate percentage are also increasing in number. With 234.5 FTE worth of this role resigning in the last financial year.

Our work with police forces across the country have consistently cited the supervisory ratios and their struggle with meeting the job requirements. This isn’t due to their competency, but the sheer amount of work to complete at their current supervision numbers. Could this also be having a rolling effect on those higher ranks?

So is Policing still a career for life?

The initial findings would suggest not so, based on sheer numbers of people leaving. But on a force by force basis, these proportions are also changing.

Of the 44 forces observed within Home Office data, 22 of them have seen their voluntary resignation proportions more than double from their amount in 2010. Five of the highest seen within this set belong to Thames Valley, Dorset, Warwickshire, Humberside & Northamptonshire. Interestingly, this is a mix of force sizes and scape in lieu of perhaps say a collective of large establishment and strength city-based forces.

The seven forces above have now all breached the threshold of having more than half of their resignations being attributed to the voluntary category.  Thames Valley again features, though judgement could link this to a higher intake of Uplift recruitment again than their initial allocation. All of these forces recruited more than their respective uplift allocations, though not to the same margins.

Conclusion

The numbers of those leaving the police have reached new heights, and whilst this fact is somewhat scuppered by recent record numbers of officers in employment, that picture may not be sustainable.

This isn’t due to people taking retirement, nor is it due to an increase in medical retirements or tightening of the budget. It’s now due to people voluntarily leaving their officer roles behind. Nationally we’ve seen just under half of all resignations this past year be attributed to voluntary resignations, 58% if you choose to include transfers.

Police forces have to start looking internally to understand the leaking that is happening within their ranks. Having a good understanding of their workforce, are they leaving from teams under pressure? Are sergeants with high supervisory ratios resigning from the job? Are new Uplift related recruits being put into too much, too soon? Effective workforce planning is needed to, in the first instance, understand what can stem the flow. Failing this however, recruitment needs to remain high or effective allocation of resources is imperative to sustain an acceptable amount of investigative capability.

By Matt Gill – Analytical Consultant

Uplift’s 20,000 new police officers

Back in August 2019, we published a blog post about what 20,000 new officers would contextually bring to front-line policing. The outcome assumed was that Police services would reach levels of officers not seen since 2009/2010, and national operating numbers would be bolstered back to a place prior to austerity, but also see an inexperienced collective grow across police services.

Where did these officers go?

Since October 2019, the Home Office has been providing allocations to services against the Uplift target whilst also backfilling roles lost through normal working processes. As mentioned in 2019, many chief officers were vying for fair portions of recruitment, with some hoping to potentially see large improvements to their strength off the back of the recruitment initiative.

The visual below shows the total allocation given to every police force and then totalled by their respective regions. The Metropolitan Police and wider London area received the most officers by allocation, prospectively taking 23.7% of all officers recruited under the Uplift initiative. Unsurprisingly, the other large singular force allocations go to those with the largest populous with Greater Manchester, West Midlands and West Yorkshire all getting considerable portions of the 20,000 new officers.

Looking at the next figure down, this shows the total numbers of officers actually recruited above or below the respective allocations shown in figure 1, all but the Metropolitan police recruited more than their initial allocation with the London based police service falling short of their allocation by 1,089. The Met’s shortfall however is to everyone else’s gain, freeing up those slots and allowing for higher allocation intakes on top of their ‘additionally supported’ recruitments. Overall, the remaining forces recruited 2,018 more officers than their recruitment targets, aggregating at 951 over allocation across the forces observed against the 20,000 uplift figures.

Whilst these additional recruitment numbers should be celebrated, no doubt adding to the potential resourcing of investigations and increasing the chances of being more visible, questions will no doubt be raised about the logistical challenges such as training, onboarding and facilities in accommodating all these new recruits.

Have Uplift targets been achieved?

As mentioned above and published in the most recent quarterly update on 26 April 2023, the total recruitment of uplift is 20,951, though how do these numbers present themselves nationally?

The figure below shows the FTE count by officer role nationally from 2010-2023

Irrespective of training stage, nationally we’re now seeing the largest number of police constables over the last 13 years by FTE, a net increase of 6,251 since 2010. The impact of the Officer uplift can clearly be seen since the initiative took place in 2019.

One note to focus on however, is that with this new rise in the number of Constables there has not been a proportionate rise in Supervisors. In fact, the number of Sergeants and Inspectors have reduced since 2010 by 1,839 and 647 respectively.

The supervisory ratios of policing appear to be reducing, with a 2.2% proportionate increase in Constables, whilst a 1.7% reduction of Sergeants. This has increased the national PC to Sergeant ratio from 4.7 FTE of Constable per Sergeant to 5.4 FTE, It would be expected to assume that some sergeants, and also some forces overall would be more adversely affected by these growths than others.

The inexperience an officer uplift brings

With 20,951 by headcount being brought in under the Officer Uplift initiative, it likely goes to assume that there’s be a large proportion of a forces strength that would be expected to have a low level, or near no, policing experience.

Whilst a higher number of officers is beneficial in the long run, a growing demand portfolio in both volume and complexity combined with the amount of tutoring required to bring new officers into the fold can put a considerable strain on an already stretched response policing function. Police Forces such as Bedfordshire and Kent, who have 45% and 42% respectively of their officers with less than 5 years of service could see challenges across the coming years of operational quality.

In counterpoint, Staffordshire and Durham may find themselves with a slightly more balanced workforce, since they have 13% and 12% of their forces with over 25 years of experience. Though, with all individuals, this proportion of the force could be expected to retire over the next 5 years, further compounding the inexperience gaps seen at these forces.

Conclusion

Uplift’s baseline objective was to recruit 20,000 new police officers. It’s done that, clearly seen in the numbers published and, for the most part, to the initial benefit of almost every eligible police service in the UK. The only caveat? It’s returned us to the numbers seen in 2010, not to new staffing heights equipped to deal with a higher caseload.

The questions now lie on the future. Supervisory ratios appear to be stretched further than before, perhaps ever; partnering this with a increasingly complex crime mix and a more inexperienced workforce could unearth a multitude of challenges.

Police Services around the UK will need to look at their workforce planning, aligning their new numbers with the most appropriate departments and creating a strategy that not only enables effective and proactive investigation, but incentivises retention.

By Matt Gill – Analytical Consultant

What do the headlines say?

News headlines often paint a bleak picture of rising crime across the UK. Home Office data published in October 2022 resulted in numerous headlines across news sources such as “Violence and rape drive recorded crime to a new high in England and Wales” from Sky News. It has been well established since the 1980s that pessimistic news articles about crime volumes negatively affect the public’s perception of crime volume and, by extension, of law enforcement’s abilities and efficiency. Does the data support the narrative of rising crime?

What is happening to crime volumes?

The Home Office publishes a rolling three years of crime data for each force in England and Wales. Figure 1 below is based on this data, demonstrating the number of crimes recorded per month in England and Wales since June 2020.

The overall volume of crime recorded in England and Wales is increasing. It’s also clear that there is seasonality in crime volumes within the average year, with summer months seeing the highest volumes of recorded crimes, and winter the lowest. The number of crimes recorded per month averaged 409k in the period since June 2020. For comparison, equivalent historical data is available for 2011-2013, which saw an of average 373k crimes recorded per month (9% less).

It is important to note that, from 23 March 2020, for much of the next two years there was some form of social restriction due to the COVID-19 pandemic across most of the country, which has affected the numbers of crimes committed and recorded during that period. It is difficult to know at this stage exactly what affect these social restrictions had on the volume of recorded crime; however, a new post-pandemic normal level appears to be emerging in 2022-2023.

What is happening to the type of crime being committed?

As well as the volume of crimes recorded, the Home Office also provides data on the type of crime committed. Figure 2 shows the trend across time for the proportion of crimes committed broken down by type.

The five largest categories of crimes recorded have remained relatively steady through time. It would be beneficial for violent and sexual offences to be broken down into further subcategories in the same way as economic crimes, as trends in the subcategories of violent and sexual offences may be missed and the full picture therefore not provided. 

What is happening to crime volumes across the regions of England and Wales?

It is worth examining whether the same trends occur across all Forces, as there is great diversity in the types of areas that Forces cover. Figure 3 shows the type of crime as a proportion of all crime recorded by region.

The national trend is roughly matched by most Forces; however, there are some notable outliers. City of London Police have a much lower proportion of violent and sexual offences versus the national average, which is most likely due to the uniquely low number of people who reside in the Force’s area. The Metropolitan Police Service is also a notable outlier to the national trend, with much higher proportions of thefts and vehicle crimes recorded. The Metropolitan Police Service is also a notable outlier for the volume of crimes recorded, with almost twice as many recorded crimes as the second highest Force in this period.

What is the public perception of crime?

It is important to note that the Home Office crime data accounts for the number of crimes recorded and, therefore, we don’t know what the trend is in terms of crimes that have not been reported by the public to a Force. The Office of National Statistics publishes results from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), which consists of interviews conducted with a sample of over 13,000 people on whether they have been a victim of crime, as well as their perception of crime. The visual below shows the CSEW results by year since it began in 1981.

The CSEW results estimate that only 40% of crimes committed are reported to a Force by victims. The results from the CSEW shown in Figure 4 suggest that crime fell by 8% between 2020 and 2022, which is in direct contrast to the 11% growth in crime the Home Office figures suggest for the same time period.  

Conclusion

Home Office data suggests that we are seeing a new normal level in recorded crime volumes. The volume of crime appears to be levelling out somewhat post-pandemic and the type of crime committed remains relatively unchanged. The trends are mostly the same across all Forces, however, the Metropolitan Police Service is a particular outlier that accounts for a very high volume of recorded crime and sees a different trend in crime type comparatively to other Forces.

Home Office crime data accounts for the number of crimes recorded and, therefore, we don’t know for certain what the trend is in terms of crimes that have not been reported by the public to a Force. If the CSEW estimates that only 40% of crimes committed are reported to a Force are correct, this suggests that potentially 60% of crime committed is not captured by the Home Office data, and that the real picture of crime experienced by the public may be more complex than the Home Office data illustrates and news headlines suggest.

By Sam Faulknall-Mills – Consultant