Challenges with the FLP and the Need for Change:

1. Reliance on Excel Macros: Clients face increasing difficulty obtaining permissions for tools relying on Excel Macros. This limitation hampers the usability and accessibility of the FLP.

2. Non-Native Mapping Integration: FLP’s mapping integration, dependent on Maptitude, creates a barrier to visualising inputs and outputs. Excel’s limited mapping capabilities are becoming more of an active hinderance

3. Limited Model Capacity: FLP, being an Excel-based tool, faces constraints with spreadsheet limitations and run-speed of code, limiting the model’s capacity to 2,000 points on a given map.

Advantages of the Coverage Profiler (CP):

1. Diverse User Base: The CP boasts a diverse and widespread user base, including the ORH and Process Evolution consulting teams, British Film Commission, Royal Flying Doctors Service, and New South Wales Ambulance Service in Australia. This diversity ensures continuous updates and improvements.

2. Mapping Visualisations: CP places mapping visualisations at the forefront, eliminating the need for separate mapping software. This enhances the user experience by providing a more integrated and streamlined approach.

3. Standalone Software: Unlike FLP, CP operates as standalone software, eliminating the need for Excel macros and external mapping tools. This shift enhances accessibility and immediate ease of use.

Comparing CP with FLP:

Jon presented a comparison using a theoretical example based in Cleveland, showcasing two versions of the CP. The CP retains the LSOA geography of FLP in one scenario, while in the other, it utilises the ORH nodeset for an enhanced geography.

Versatility of the CP:

The CP allows users to explore various coverage statistics within one scenario, such as response times, neighbourhood coverage, firearms deployment, and more. It offers diverse mapping options, including travel time, coverage, catchments, and resource count.

Optimising Locations within CP:

Both CP and FLP use the same base optimisation algorithm for identifying the best configuration of locations. CP, however, enhances this algorithm’s speed, allowing parallel runs to avoid local minimum/maximum issues.

Conclusion:

In summary, the CP not only matches the capabilities of FLP but also surpasses it with several major advantages. As a self-contained software with no reliance on Excel macros or external mapping tools, the CP provides enhanced functionality and usability. The ongoing development driven by its diverse user base ensures a continuously evolving and effective tool. Going forward, the CP is set to replace FLP, offering a more efficient and powerful solution for resource planning.

For those eager to experience the revolutionary CP, a demo/test drive is encouraged.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Current Work and Challenges

The development team is actively engaged in migrating Process Evolution’s tools to alternative technologies, primarily shifting towards web applications. This has been driven by the need for increased accessibility and adaptability and will reshape the user experience for many tools. The intention is to remove those hurdles within Excel-based models due to evolving work practices and technologies. Factors like the National Enablement Programme and collaborative working in SharePoint have prompted the need for a transition to web applications.

Advantages of Web Applications

Dr. Boness emphasised the advantages of web applications, highlighting their accessibility, automatic updates, and enhanced collaboration capabilities. Web applications eliminate the need for installations, ensuring users always have the latest version and facilitating profiler sharing and cross-profiler comparisons.

Workload Profiler

Last year, the web version of the Workload Profiler was introduced, and since then, notable enhancements have been made. Users can now generate reports directly from the web version, including charts and tables that can be seamlessly copied into Excel and Word.

FLP and DCM

The Demand Coverage Model (DCM) has seen improvements with functionalities from the Facility Location Planner (FLP). This desktop application, independent of Excel or third-party software, provides a comprehensive analysis and visualisation of service coverage within various response target times.

Coming Soon… Online Risk Tool

Anticipation surrounds the upcoming Online Risk Tool, a web version of HARM. This tool centralises the map component and supports hierarchical geography structures. Users can zoom into maps, selecting areas for contextual information.

SharePoint Compatibility

Acknowledging the increasing use of SharePoint for collaboration, the Development Team is working to ensure compatibility with Process Evolution Excel tools. Beginning with the Workload Profiler, efforts are underway to streamline tools with dependencies on Maptitude or Simul8.

Feedback and Challenges

Tom addressed feedback and challenges, particularly regarding simulation models. Acknowledging the resource-intensive nature of simulation on high-spec laptops, the team is exploring cloud-based options, aiming to enhance usability without the need for powerful computers.

As Process Evolution navigates these changes, user feedback remains crucial. The commitment to adaptability and user-friendly experiences is evident as the team strives to overcome challenges and lead the way into a more streamlined and accessible future.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

The focus of the presentation revolved around the convergence of three critical elements:

1. Increasing Volume and Complexity of Demand:
   • Total incident volumes in 2022 rose by 6.5%
   • Recorded crime volumes increased by 17% in 2022
   • Crimes as a percentage of incidents surged from 27.8% in 2018 to 35.2% in 2022.
2. Impact of Demand Increases on Resourcing:
   • The last review of budgeted resourcing for Response Policing was conducted in late 2020 by Process Evolution, using data from the 2019/20 financial year.
3. Complications of Required Resourcing:
   • The influx of student officers due to the Police Uplift Programme posed challenges in achieving ‘fully-functional’ resourcing.

Fully-Functional Resourcing:

A detailed Response Profiler was created to determine the ‘fully-functional’ PC resourcing required. This was defined as officers who had passed their Occupational Competence Portfolio, completed initial learning programs, and were not involved in tutoring.

Student Officer Impact:

The introduction of student officers through various entry routes presented challenges in achieving the desired ‘fully-functional’ resource. Different categories and constant shifts in the distribution of Response PCs added complexity.

Sergeant Impact:

The increased presence of student officers had a significant knock-on effect on Response Sergeants. New requirements, such as Tripartite Reviews, added to their workload, necessitating a reconsideration of the historically based ratios to direct reports.

Scenario Considerations:

Given budget constraints, several areas for demand reduction were presented for discussion. Considerations included realigning crime investigations and optimising entry routes to reduce officer requirements.

Shift Pattern Changes:

Cleveland Police made significant changes to the Response shift pattern, shifting from a 5-team to a 4-team pattern. This change was driven by a more aligned demand, reduced Sergeant demand for handovers, and an Inspector-led team model. The changes were modelled and scenario tested using the Response Profiler and Ximes software tools.

HMIC Recognition:

The work conducted by Cleveland Police was recognised by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC), contributing to the force’s exit from enhanced monitoring. This underscored the importance of evidence-based principles in strategic planning.

In navigating the ‘perfect storm,’ Cleveland Police showcased a commitment to data-driven decision-making, adaptation to evolving demands, and a holistic approach to resourcing in Response Policing. This journey reflects a proactive response to the challenges faced by modern law enforcement agencies.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Understanding Operation Soteria

Operation Soteria Bluestone, a national Home Office-funded initiative, aims to improve the response to rape and serious sexual offences by bringing together police forces, academics, and policy leads. The initiative was prompted by low outcome rates, poor victim satisfaction scores, and a continuous stream of distressing news articles. Op Soteria’s objectives include achieving transformative change in police investigations, procedural justice for all parties involved, and a balanced approach focusing on the alleged offence.

Op Soteria’s Recommendations

Ali highlighted key recommendations from Op Soteria that are reshaping investigative practices, which include:

1. Specialist Officers: The requirement for officers with expertise in sexual offending and evidence-informed specialist investigative practices.
2. Perpetrator Behaviour Focus: A shift towards greater focus on disrupting known offenders and reducing the disproportionate time spent testing the credibility of a victim’s account.
3. Collaboration with Victim Support: Increased collaboration with victim support services, fostering relationships with organisations like Safelink and SARSAS.
4. Closer Ties with CPS: Strengthening working relationships with the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS).
5. Digital Material Use: Improved utilisation of digital materials in investigations, including the introduction of enhanced services such as digital triage vans.

Applying Changes in the Workload Profiler

Ali provided insights into a simplified RASSO Workload Profiler model, breaking down Rape and Serious Sexual Offence investigation workstreams into 43 process steps with factors like likelihood, staff, and duration. Using this theoretical example Ali demonstrated how changes, such as further training for RASSO officers, offender disruption efforts, closer relationships with the CPS, and the impact of various scenarios, can be modelled systematically. This approach allows for a rapid and thorough understanding of the potential impact of each change.

Implications for Other Policing Functions

The presentation concluded with Ali highlighting the broader implications of Op Soteria’s approach. By applying systematic modelling to scenarios, various policing functions, such as vetting and wider crime investigations, could benefit from this. The emphasis was on providing a structured and evidence-based methodology to analyse and implement changes, offering a glimpse into a more effective and efficient future for policing functions beyond RASSO.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Hotspots Policing: A Government-Backed Initiative

Two years ago, the presenters highlighted the integration of evidence-based approaches into demand and resource modelling using the Process Evolution toolset. Fast forward to today, and Hotspots Policing is receiving a substantial government investment. The presentation delved into the significance of incorporating analysis into policing strategies, emphasising the need for a balanced approach between evidence-based and experience-based targeting.

The Importance of Analysis in Hotspots Policing

Andrew and Ashley stressed the critical role of analysis in Hotspots Policing. Drawing on examples from Cambridgeshire and the Police Service of Northern Ireland, they highlighted the potential pitfalls of relying solely on professional judgment. The combination of analysis and intuition was deemed essential, with an emphasis on avoiding false positives and negatives to optimise patrol efforts.

Implementation as a Change Management Process

Implementation, as part of the broader change management process, was a key focus. Three pivotal stages were outlined:

1. Preparation: Invest effort in designing change, understanding resource capacity, and utilising tools like RAMP and the HARM tool.
2. Managing the Change: Emphasise the people dimension, involve volunteers in decisions, and employ psychological strategies to avoid planning pitfalls.
3. Reinforcing the Change: Stress the importance of post-implementation reviews, learning lessons, and continuous improvement to avoid repeating mistakes.

Key Lessons from Implementation

The presenters distilled three key lessons from their implementation experience:

1. Communication: Ensure effective communication, led by department heads, emphasising the ‘why’ behind the change. Face-to-face briefings were recommended for optimal impact.
2. Resourcing: Confirm that the resources allocated align with the plan, address misunderstandings, and prioritise based on risk.
3. Monitoring and Corrective Action: Regularly monitor and assess activities, ensuring they align with the designed strategy. Corrective action should be taken based on feedback and performance metrics.

Summary: Effective Implementation for Crime Prevention

In summary, the implementation of Hotspots Policing presents a significant opportunity for evidence-based policing. Targeted analysis is crucial for maximising benefits, and effective implementation, embedded in a holistic change management process, is also key. The presenters highlighted the need to consider benefits management from the outset, emphasising that successful implementation will ultimately contribute to the fundamental policing mission of crime prevention.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Understanding the Challenge for Chief Officers

Ali began by addressing the common sentiment among senior policing leaders who face the constant demand for more resources. The question posed was whether the culture of resource requests existed prior to uplifts or if uplifts themselves created this expectation of abundant resources. The challenges are vast, including calls for service, workforce issues, increasing complexity, and the difficulty of benchmarking.

Ali acknowledged the challenging life of Chief Officers who must prioritise numerous requests. The complexity lies in understanding the effects of each decision, potential unintended consequences, and the difficulty in distinguishing crucial requests from the multitude of demands.

Introduction to RAMP

The Resource Allocation Model for Police (RAMP) was introduced as a structured framework designed to identify the required resources under different yearly demand scenarios and compare them with budgeted levels. RAMP facilitates rapid evaluation of operating models, organisational structures, and processes by accounting for key resource drivers using common data elements from operational systems.

Applications of RAMP

Ali highlighted some of applications of RAMP, including calculating the resources needed to address demand, optimising available resources for deployment, and evaluating alternative incident grading policies. RAMP addresses the challenges of demand management in policing, considering variations in work content, constraints on working hours, and minimum staffing levels.

Ali provided an overview of how RAMP works, involving high-level calculations based on annual volumes and static calculations for resource requirements.

Practical Example and Considerations

Ali concluded by presenting a theoretical example demonstrating the impact of changing remits and workload allocation between teams. He emphasised that while the example is simplified, more detailed considerations, such as crime allocation processes, geographical variations, and the impact of double handling, should be taken into account for a comprehensive understanding when using the tools in real-world situations.

A Step Towards Optimising Resources

Ali’s presentation re-introduced RAMP as a valuable tool for police forces to optimise their resources in the face of competing demands. While acknowledging the complexity of the policing environment, RAMP provides a structured approach to address resource challenges and enhance decision-making in the allocation of resources.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Initiating the Review: Understanding the Why and How

The journey begins with the initiation of a review, addressing the need for organisational changes. Jared emphasises the importance of understanding the VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) framework and PESTELO factors. These factors, including efficiency, outcomes, and value for money, must be carefully considered and documented.

Stakeholder Involvement: A Critical Component

Identifying the influencers and involving key stakeholders is crucial. The Executive, Crime Commissioner, Senior Leaders, Police Officers, and Finance Leads are pivotal players. Parkin stresses the significance of engagement with other stakeholders, including Corporate Development, ICT, and Analysts, to ensure a holistic view of the force.

Communication Strategy: The Key to Success

Communication emerges as a pivotal theme throughout the process. A well-thought-out strategy involves engaging with leaders, operational and police staff, and external stakeholders. The communication plan must be detailed, providing updates to all parties, including the Executive, to manage expectations effectively.

The Plan: A Blueprint for Success

Jared emphasises the need for a written plan, citing HMICFRS – “If it’s not written down, it didn’t happen!” Executive oversight, meeting structures, and selecting the right approach, whether a programme, project, or another methodology, are critical components. Identifying responsible parties, including support functions, operational commanders, and dedicated teams, ensures effective delivery.

Exit and Implementation: Turning Recommendations into Action

The final report serves as an evidence-based document. Collaboration between consultants and the organisation is crucial before the final draft. Recommendations, prioritised based on logical implementation, guide the next steps. Implementing teams, skill sets, and post-implementation reviews contribute to successful outcomes.

Specific Lessons Learned: Practical Insights

Jared shared specific lessons learned, including the importance of forecasting figures, early identification of project teams, and understanding the impact on daily operations. Prioritising recommendations, both qualitatively and quantitatively, is essential. Training analysts, creating time and space, understanding ICT and procurement, and establishing funding streams are also highlighted.

Next Steps and Continuous Engagement: Looking Ahead

The presentation concludes with a call to action, encouraging ongoing engagement with Process Evolution, seeking their advice, and being prepared for organisational changes. Acknowledging conflicting demands and processes, especially during transitions, emphasises the need for continuous communication.

Conclusion: A Collaborative Blueprint for Policing Success

Jared’s presentation serves as a collaborative blueprint for navigating the complexities of working with external consultants in policing. By addressing key themes and providing practical insights, the presentation offers a roadmap for police services to leverage external expertise effectively and drive positive organisational change.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Unprecedented Changes in Demand and Complexity

The first theme delves into the unprecedented changes in demand and complexity faced by police forces. Fraud offences have surged by 98%, recorded sexual offences have tripled, and computer misuse increased by 89% in the last two years. These crime types demand intricate investigations, leading to challenges such as establishing thresholds for fraud, implementing Operation Soteria for sexual offences, and growing CEOPs teams for computer misuse.

Workforce Transformations and Growing Pains

The second theme revolves around significant changes in the police workforce. New recruits tend to end up on Response teams that are facing substantial growing pains, lacking experience and contributing to higher levels of abstraction. Factors like increased time on scene; increased double crewing, and political pressure have led to concerns. Despite a massive influx of resources, there are still substantial vacancies in skilled positions, impacting response performance for many forces across England and Wales.

Trust and Public Confidence Under Pressure

The third theme highlights the ongoing pressure on trust and public confidence in policing. Macro conditions, high-profile cases, and the impact of social media trials are all influencing public perception. This all permeates into an environment where simple problems, such as a delay in service response, create further issues for forces struggling to not only manage and meet the expectations of the public, but also maintain a level of trust.

Focus and Scrutiny on Planning for the Future

The fourth theme emphasises the critical importance of planning for the future. With increased access to quality data, the planning process becomes fundamental to shaping the future workforce. Notably, not all forces have a strong grip on workforce planning, leading to questions about vacancies in specific units. Proper workforce planning, when executed effectively, results in increased control and confidence in long-term plans. The need for strategic planning in facilities, resourcing, and horizon scanning, tactical sizing of resource requirements, and operational support is crucial for the future of policing.

In conclusion, Ali presentation shed light on the complex challenges faced by UK policing today and the strategic considerations needed for navigating an ever-changing landscape. As we look toward the future, the key lies in adaptability, effective planning, and a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted issues at hand.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

From its humble beginnings, the HARM model has expanded significantly, introducing a diverse range of measures of ‘harm’; including geographical structures, risk families with associated metrics and weightings. This evolution enables a more nuanced analysis, measuring these factors at relevant geographical levels. Notably, there has been a heightened focus on vulnerability and inclusion of supplementary data sources. These additions, coupled with the original demand inputs, have underscored the necessity for a deeper understanding of the inputs and their respective weightings.

In response to these growing demands, the HARM tool has incorporated functionalities beyond summary statistics. The inclusion of scenario creation capabilities empowers users and consultants to explore those ‘what-if’ scenarios frequently encountered in emergency services. The tool has been enhanced to incorporate the utilisation of databases, allowing for filtering by geography and facilitating interrogative analysis to identify potential issues like double counting or recency bias affecting model outputs.

The success of the HARM tool’s development is evident in its adoption by multiple services across various disciplines and functions both within policing and in the fire sector. It has found applications in Response, Investigations, Personal Protection Units, each tailoring its unique interpretation of what is critical to their mission and how resources should be allocated accordingly.

Recognising the perpetual challenges that come with any tool, our merger with ORH positions us to apply new technology to improve the Harm tool. A sneak peak of the online Risk tool was also provided.

The evolution of the HARM tool stands as a testament to its adaptability and the commitment of its developers to meet the evolving needs of emergency services. Going forward with the developments made with the online Risk tool, it reaffirms our dedication to providing top-tier tools to understand harm and risk within the dynamic landscape of public services.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

The Purpose of Model Validation:

The primary question to address is why we validate models. Beyond ensuring the accuracy of inputs, validation plays a pivotal role for analysts and senior leaders. It instils confidence and garners buy-in for the technology employed, providing a vital reality check to confirm that observed outcomes align with the expected feasibility during scenario runs. Integrating model validation into the simulation and modelling process is imperative. Even in cases where historical data quality might be questionable or old processes don’t align with current understanding, a degree of validation should persist to either accommodate a higher tolerance in model outputs or to ensure that the baseline model outputs ‘feel’ right.

Factors Influencing Model Validation Efficacy:

Mark addresses the dangers of data integrity and ensuring that the data input addresses more forcewide performance, in lieu of granular analysis. Ensuring that users of the tool can minimise the amount of assumptions made within the modelling phases of a project cant maximise the efficacy of the validation process.

Nuances in Response and Call Profilers:

Each Response and Call profiler requires specific attention during validation. For Response Profiler, the emphasis should be on ensuring that resource utilizations appear appropriate and that grade 1 and 2 performance levels are reasonable. Call Profiler, while more challenging to validate, has key aspects to observe, including performance levels at specific times of the day as well as abandonment rates.

Key Tips for Effective Scenario Validation:

Mark’s paramount advice for effective scenario validation revolves around one crucial theme: a structured approach with documentation. Creating a ‘back sheet,’ either within the Excel models or on a results workbook, facilitates the compilation of key statistics. This documentation enables the modelling and amendment of key details, while also tracking changes influenced by essential process steps.

In conclusion, the diligence invested in model validation is not merely a procedural necessity but a strategic imperative. It builds confidence, ensures data integrity, and ultimately enhances the reliability and effectiveness of analytical models in the realm of policing.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk