The result of the Force’s HMICFRS PEEL inspection was published in March 2023. This highlighted several areas for improvement, including the need to obtain a more detailed understanding of demand and ensuring it had the right capacity and capability to service that demand. Furthermore, concerns were raised around the timeliness of the Force’s response to incidents.

While immediate steps had successfully ben taken by the Force to improve response performance, it wanted to use its data to provide a robust, sustainable, evidence-based assessment of response resource requirements.

Process Evolution’s Approach

Process Evolution undertook a comprehensive data collection and analysis exercise, supported by several focus groups consisting of response officers and management teams. Assessment of the historic demand, workload and resourcing data, alongside benchmarking against other UK Forces, provided confidence that the response function was not under-resourced but identified that the existing resources were not being utilised as effectively as they could be.

Simulation modelling enabled Process Evolution to quantify the impact of changing resource locations, deployment protocols and shift patterns on the Force’s capability to provide a timely response; in particular reducing the variability in performance across different geographical areas and allocating resources fairly across the commands.

Results

Process Evolution recommended several changes to the allocation and deployment processes of response resources including:

• Rebalancing of Establishment resourcing across the commands to better match demand requirements, while allowing for differences in the geographical makeup of each area
  • Alongside recommended minimum staffing levels which are achievable and in balance with these Establishments
• Changes to shift patterns within the existing core structure to address previous reductions in resources at peak demand times and to reduce variability in day-to-day resourcing levels
• Implementation of a forward deployment plan to improve the consistency of resource availability and to reduce the variability in immediate response performance across geographical areas

Furthermore, our modelling approach demonstrated to North Yorkshire Police that a hybrid response/neighbourhood model was not an appropriate model for the Force at this time. Implementing our recommendations will enable the Force to improve immediate and priority response performance and reduce geographical variability at no additional resource cost.

To download the full case-study. Simply head to out policing page. For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Warwickshire Police is one of the smaller Forces in England and Wales. However, it borders onto six others (including one Metropolitan area) and has a significant road infrastructure, all of which contribute to its demand profile.

The Operational Communications Centre (OCC) was struggling to meet the 999 call answering target, and the mean answer time for 101 calls had been declining over time. Similarly, the true demand on the digital desk was unknown.

Warwickshire Police wanted support to design an efficient operating model to meet key performance indicators (KPIs) across the different demand streams. This included identifying the staffing requirements on a new 101 triage desk, and the subsequent impact on call handler requirements.

Process Evolution’s Approach

Process Evolution carries out detailed analysis of telephony, digital desk and resource data to understand the balance between demand, resourcing, processes and performance. As a result of the baseline work, a series of modelling scenarios for different operating models were created.

The analysis and outcomes from practitioner workshops enabled our Call Profiler software tool to be used to create a virtual replica of the OCC. With this, iterations of the identified modelling scenarios were carried out to identify the optimum operating model and staffing requirements to meet desired call answer performance targets.

Findings

A new operating model was designed in collaboration with Warwickshire Police which introduced a new 101 triage desk, a pool of 999 and 101 call handlers, and a Digital Desk that could be ‘interrupted’ to handle 999 calls when required.

This new model required a similar number of staff to the current model while offering improved 999 call handling performance and increased resilience during times of peak demand.

Shift pattern options that maintained the current core rota structures were identified that supported the new operating model and allowed call answer performance targets to be met.

In Summary

• The new operating model would improve performance
• To implement the new model, a small uplift of 1.9 FTE would be required
• The proposed shift pattern allowed for a ‘smoothed’ consistent hourly resourcing pool
• Any reduction in staffing numbers would increase the call abandonment rate
• All of these aspects allow the OCC to improve performance in meeting demand with current resource levels

Outcome

Immediately following completion of the review, Warwickshire Police used the results to successfully ‘bed in’ a new 101 triage desk.

As part of Phase II within their OCC change programme, Warwickshire Police are using Process Evolution’s findings to support the design and implementation of the new operating model.

Mike Smith, Chief Superintendent for Public Contact said:

“Process Evolution helped us to design a new operating model in our contact management centre across our 999, 101 and digital desk workload. They were knowledgeable and professional, and clearly explained the impacts of decisions and assumptions that we made along the way.“

To download the full case-study. Simply head to out policing page. For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Warwickshire Police needed to make savings of £3M from its annual budget. At the same time, Response Policing was under pressure with reports of rising demand, work overflowing to Neighbourhood Teams and concern for officer wellbeing.

Process Evolution was commissioned to identify options for financial savings while alleviating the pressure on Response Policing.

Process Evolution’s Approach

Process Evolution undertook a robust baselining of the demand placed on Response Policing. This involved analysis of data from incident and crime systems together with a series of practitioner workshops to identify hidden demand. Comparing the outputs with our benchmarking data enables us to identify potential improvements that were tested using our Response Profiler simulation model.

Findings

We presented a menu of options to Warwickshire Police and worked with the Force to combine these into a preferred solution. The recommendations included:

• Reviewing incident grading policy
• Implementing an office-based demand reduction unit to resolve incidents without deployment
• Increasing the contribution of Roads Policing to local incident response
• Adjusting the Response shift pattern to better match resource availability to when incidents are reported
• Better exploitation of mobile technology

Outcome

Warwickshire Police implemented Process Evolution’s recommendations in full, enabling the required savings to be realised and backlogs of outstanding incidents to be removed, therefore releasing time for health and wellbeing activities.

Alexander Franklin-Smith, Assistant Chief Constable said:

“Process Evolution’s work informed a number of fundamental changes to our policing model which continue to serve us and our communities well. They’re very professional, comprehensive and thorough”

To download the full case-study. Simply head to our policing page. For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Lincolnshire Police is one of the lowest funded Forces in terms of total funding per head of population in England and Wales. The budgeted headcount for detectives in its Public Protection department had remained unchanged for several years, despite increased demand and complexity of cases.

With all departments in the Force similarly experiencing rising demand, the Force needed to better understand the demand for Public Protection services and ensure that it was making best use of its existing capacity to enable the case for additional investment to be assessed.

Process Evolution’s Approach

Process Evolution undertook a robust baselining of the demand placed on Public Protection. This involved analysis of data from incident and crime systems together with a series of practitioner workshops to map the investigative processes for RASSO (Rape and Serious Sexual Offences) and Child Abuse cases. The outputs were fed into our Investigation Profiler modelling software to enable the resource requirements to be accurately calculated. We used our geographical optimisation software to assess the hub locations where officers were based.

Findings

The key findings were that:

• Budgeted officer numbers were about right, but challenges were caused by high levels of vacancy
  • This was being compounded by increasing absence rates attributed to work pressures from the resource shortfall
• A hub-based model with officers investigating child abuse and RASSO cases was more efficient than centrally based specialist teams due to the large geography of Lincolnshire
• Adding a fourth hub to the existing three would make a saving in travel time of around 1.5 ful ime equivalent detectives
• Several process improvement options were identified, including the recruitment of case workers as a quick means of reducing the resourcing gaps

Outcome

Lincolnshire Police have subsequently implemented a fourth hub, aligning with other investigative capability, including custody suites. This has been accompanied by an increase in supervision and additional headcount to bring resource levels closer to establishment.

As Uplift officers flow into the Force, further increase is planned from February 2024, and the establishment has been raised to cope with expected continued increases in demand.

Liz Rodgers, Head of Public Protection said:

“There is a clear message that based on the evidence provided though Process Evolution, the Force is investing resources into this area of PVP business. This has been recognised by staff working within the teams and we are starting to see improvements in supervision, morale and culture”

To download the full case-study, simply head to our police page. For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

The main findings from this analysis are:

• There is considerable variance between police services in Clare’s Law disclosure rates.
• This variance is not correlated to the prevalence of Domestic Abuse, i.e. there are several forces with low disclosure rates and high prevalence of domestic abuse, and vice versa.
• Local differences in how Clare’s Law has been implemented are contributing to this variance.

Process Evolution can help police services to ensure that they optimise their implementation of Clare’s Law.

Background

The Domestic Violence Disclosure Scheme (DVDS) is more commonly referred to as “Clare’s Law” after the case of Clare Wood, who was murdered in 2009 by her former partner in Greater Manchester. It has been applied by police services since its roll out in 2013. Clare’s Law enables the police to disclose information where it could protect a member of the public who may be at risk of harm from domestic abuse.

The DVDS uses two procedures:

• The “Right to Ask”. Triggered by a member of the public applying to the police for a disclosure.
• The “Right to Know”. Triggered by the police making a proactive decision to disclose information to protect a potential victim(s).

These procedures should be underpinned by risk assessments and practical safety advice when a disclosure is made.

This article poses the following questions:

• Is there variance in the Clare’s Law disclosure rates between police services?
• Is there variance in the rate at which Clare’s Law is triggered between police services?

Data Sources

To inform this blog, we analysed the data tables accompanying the Office of National Statistics (ONS) article titled ‘Domestic abuse and the criminal justice system, England and Wales: November 2023’.

We also reference knowledge gained through demand management work undertaken with the public protection functions of several UK police services.

Analysis

The first chart has two parts. The top half shows the disclosure rate per application under ‘Right to Ask’ (Y-axis) by Service (X-axis), and the lower half under ‘Right to Know’.

Figure 1: Domestic abuse disclosures made against the numbers applied by Police Service

From figure 1 above, we can see the following:

• ‘Right to Ask’ disclosure rates per application vary from 59% down to 6%.
• ‘Right to Know’ disclosure rates vary from 73% down to 0%.
• Those services with high ‘Right to Ask’ disclosure rates don’t necessarily have high ‘Right to Know’ disclosure rates, although Essex is low in both cases whilst Lincolnshire is high in both cases.

The second chart is a scatter plot showing the number of domestic abuse incidents and crimes per 100,000 population against the ‘Right to Ask’ disclosure rate:

Figure 2: Domestic abuse disclosure rates against domestic abuse prevalence within the populous

From figure 2, we can see the following:

• Domestic abuse crimes per 100,000 population (X-axis), range from 378 in Surrey to 2,734 in West Yorkshire.
• There is little correlation between Clare’s Law disclosure rates under Right to Ask (Y-axis) and DA crimes per 100,000 of population.

There are services with a high prevalence of domestic abuse and low Clare’s Law disclosure rates, vice versa and between.

Conclusion

Clare’s Law (DVDS) was designed to reduce domestic abuse by sharing information about a person’s known history. The variances shown suggests that Clare’s Law is not being fully exploited by all services. In our experience, such variances can be caused by many factors, including:

• Lack of awareness amongst the public leading to lower disclosure requests.
• Inefficient processes / different implementations causing delay and additional work, contributing to a lack of capacity to process applications.

Should serious crimes occur when applications under Clare’s Law could have prevented them, reputational damage to police services are the likely result, not to mention the personal harm caused. This is therefore an opportunity worth tackling for the benefit of both the victims and police services.

What can be done?

A process improvement programme, such as that delivered by Process Evolution for vetting processes as part of the Uplift programme, would help realise the benefits from Clare’s Law. Our new cloud-based modelling technology would enable this to be delivered in a more streamlined way.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Written by Peter Loader – Company Founder

Challenges with the FLP and the Need for Change:

1. Reliance on Excel Macros: Clients face increasing difficulty obtaining permissions for tools relying on Excel Macros. This limitation hampers the usability and accessibility of the FLP.

2. Non-Native Mapping Integration: FLP’s mapping integration, dependent on Maptitude, creates a barrier to visualising inputs and outputs. Excel’s limited mapping capabilities are becoming more of an active hinderance

3. Limited Model Capacity: FLP, being an Excel-based tool, faces constraints with spreadsheet limitations and run-speed of code, limiting the model’s capacity to 2,000 points on a given map.

Advantages of the Coverage Profiler (CP):

1. Diverse User Base: The CP boasts a diverse and widespread user base, including the ORH and Process Evolution consulting teams, British Film Commission, Royal Flying Doctors Service, and New South Wales Ambulance Service in Australia. This diversity ensures continuous updates and improvements.

2. Mapping Visualisations: CP places mapping visualisations at the forefront, eliminating the need for separate mapping software. This enhances the user experience by providing a more integrated and streamlined approach.

3. Standalone Software: Unlike FLP, CP operates as standalone software, eliminating the need for Excel macros and external mapping tools. This shift enhances accessibility and immediate ease of use.

Comparing CP with FLP:

Jon presented a comparison using a theoretical example based in Cleveland, showcasing two versions of the CP. The CP retains the LSOA geography of FLP in one scenario, while in the other, it utilises the ORH nodeset for an enhanced geography.

Versatility of the CP:

The CP allows users to explore various coverage statistics within one scenario, such as response times, neighbourhood coverage, firearms deployment, and more. It offers diverse mapping options, including travel time, coverage, catchments, and resource count.

Optimising Locations within CP:

Both CP and FLP use the same base optimisation algorithm for identifying the best configuration of locations. CP, however, enhances this algorithm’s speed, allowing parallel runs to avoid local minimum/maximum issues.

Conclusion:

In summary, the CP not only matches the capabilities of FLP but also surpasses it with several major advantages. As a self-contained software with no reliance on Excel macros or external mapping tools, the CP provides enhanced functionality and usability. The ongoing development driven by its diverse user base ensures a continuously evolving and effective tool. Going forward, the CP is set to replace FLP, offering a more efficient and powerful solution for resource planning.

For those eager to experience the revolutionary CP, a demo/test drive is encouraged.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Current Work and Challenges

The development team is actively engaged in migrating Process Evolution’s tools to alternative technologies, primarily shifting towards web applications. This has been driven by the need for increased accessibility and adaptability and will reshape the user experience for many tools. The intention is to remove those hurdles within Excel-based models due to evolving work practices and technologies. Factors like the National Enablement Programme and collaborative working in SharePoint have prompted the need for a transition to web applications.

Advantages of Web Applications

Dr. Boness emphasised the advantages of web applications, highlighting their accessibility, automatic updates, and enhanced collaboration capabilities. Web applications eliminate the need for installations, ensuring users always have the latest version and facilitating profiler sharing and cross-profiler comparisons.

Workload Profiler

Last year, the web version of the Workload Profiler was introduced, and since then, notable enhancements have been made. Users can now generate reports directly from the web version, including charts and tables that can be seamlessly copied into Excel and Word.

FLP and DCM

The Demand Coverage Model (DCM) has seen improvements with functionalities from the Facility Location Planner (FLP). This desktop application, independent of Excel or third-party software, provides a comprehensive analysis and visualisation of service coverage within various response target times.

Coming Soon… Online Risk Tool

Anticipation surrounds the upcoming Online Risk Tool, a web version of HARM. This tool centralises the map component and supports hierarchical geography structures. Users can zoom into maps, selecting areas for contextual information.

SharePoint Compatibility

Acknowledging the increasing use of SharePoint for collaboration, the Development Team is working to ensure compatibility with Process Evolution Excel tools. Beginning with the Workload Profiler, efforts are underway to streamline tools with dependencies on Maptitude or Simul8.

Feedback and Challenges

Tom addressed feedback and challenges, particularly regarding simulation models. Acknowledging the resource-intensive nature of simulation on high-spec laptops, the team is exploring cloud-based options, aiming to enhance usability without the need for powerful computers.

As Process Evolution navigates these changes, user feedback remains crucial. The commitment to adaptability and user-friendly experiences is evident as the team strives to overcome challenges and lead the way into a more streamlined and accessible future.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

The focus of the presentation revolved around the convergence of three critical elements:

1. Increasing Volume and Complexity of Demand:
   • Total incident volumes in 2022 rose by 6.5%
   • Recorded crime volumes increased by 17% in 2022
   • Crimes as a percentage of incidents surged from 27.8% in 2018 to 35.2% in 2022.
2. Impact of Demand Increases on Resourcing:
   • The last review of budgeted resourcing for Response Policing was conducted in late 2020 by Process Evolution, using data from the 2019/20 financial year.
3. Complications of Required Resourcing:
   • The influx of student officers due to the Police Uplift Programme posed challenges in achieving ‘fully-functional’ resourcing.

Fully-Functional Resourcing:

A detailed Response Profiler was created to determine the ‘fully-functional’ PC resourcing required. This was defined as officers who had passed their Occupational Competence Portfolio, completed initial learning programs, and were not involved in tutoring.

Student Officer Impact:

The introduction of student officers through various entry routes presented challenges in achieving the desired ‘fully-functional’ resource. Different categories and constant shifts in the distribution of Response PCs added complexity.

Sergeant Impact:

The increased presence of student officers had a significant knock-on effect on Response Sergeants. New requirements, such as Tripartite Reviews, added to their workload, necessitating a reconsideration of the historically based ratios to direct reports.

Scenario Considerations:

Given budget constraints, several areas for demand reduction were presented for discussion. Considerations included realigning crime investigations and optimising entry routes to reduce officer requirements.

Shift Pattern Changes:

Cleveland Police made significant changes to the Response shift pattern, shifting from a 5-team to a 4-team pattern. This change was driven by a more aligned demand, reduced Sergeant demand for handovers, and an Inspector-led team model. The changes were modelled and scenario tested using the Response Profiler and Ximes software tools.

HMIC Recognition:

The work conducted by Cleveland Police was recognised by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC), contributing to the force’s exit from enhanced monitoring. This underscored the importance of evidence-based principles in strategic planning.

In navigating the ‘perfect storm,’ Cleveland Police showcased a commitment to data-driven decision-making, adaptation to evolving demands, and a holistic approach to resourcing in Response Policing. This journey reflects a proactive response to the challenges faced by modern law enforcement agencies.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Understanding Operation Soteria

Operation Soteria Bluestone, a national Home Office-funded initiative, aims to improve the response to rape and serious sexual offences by bringing together police forces, academics, and policy leads. The initiative was prompted by low outcome rates, poor victim satisfaction scores, and a continuous stream of distressing news articles. Op Soteria’s objectives include achieving transformative change in police investigations, procedural justice for all parties involved, and a balanced approach focusing on the alleged offence.

Op Soteria’s Recommendations

Ali highlighted key recommendations from Op Soteria that are reshaping investigative practices, which include:

1. Specialist Officers: The requirement for officers with expertise in sexual offending and evidence-informed specialist investigative practices.
2. Perpetrator Behaviour Focus: A shift towards greater focus on disrupting known offenders and reducing the disproportionate time spent testing the credibility of a victim’s account.
3. Collaboration with Victim Support: Increased collaboration with victim support services, fostering relationships with organisations like Safelink and SARSAS.
4. Closer Ties with CPS: Strengthening working relationships with the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS).
5. Digital Material Use: Improved utilisation of digital materials in investigations, including the introduction of enhanced services such as digital triage vans.

Applying Changes in the Workload Profiler

Ali provided insights into a simplified RASSO Workload Profiler model, breaking down Rape and Serious Sexual Offence investigation workstreams into 43 process steps with factors like likelihood, staff, and duration. Using this theoretical example Ali demonstrated how changes, such as further training for RASSO officers, offender disruption efforts, closer relationships with the CPS, and the impact of various scenarios, can be modelled systematically. This approach allows for a rapid and thorough understanding of the potential impact of each change.

Implications for Other Policing Functions

The presentation concluded with Ali highlighting the broader implications of Op Soteria’s approach. By applying systematic modelling to scenarios, various policing functions, such as vetting and wider crime investigations, could benefit from this. The emphasis was on providing a structured and evidence-based methodology to analyse and implement changes, offering a glimpse into a more effective and efficient future for policing functions beyond RASSO.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk

Hotspots Policing: A Government-Backed Initiative

Two years ago, the presenters highlighted the integration of evidence-based approaches into demand and resource modelling using the Process Evolution toolset. Fast forward to today, and Hotspots Policing is receiving a substantial government investment. The presentation delved into the significance of incorporating analysis into policing strategies, emphasising the need for a balanced approach between evidence-based and experience-based targeting.

The Importance of Analysis in Hotspots Policing

Andrew and Ashley stressed the critical role of analysis in Hotspots Policing. Drawing on examples from Cambridgeshire and the Police Service of Northern Ireland, they highlighted the potential pitfalls of relying solely on professional judgment. The combination of analysis and intuition was deemed essential, with an emphasis on avoiding false positives and negatives to optimise patrol efforts.

Implementation as a Change Management Process

Implementation, as part of the broader change management process, was a key focus. Three pivotal stages were outlined:

1. Preparation: Invest effort in designing change, understanding resource capacity, and utilising tools like RAMP and the HARM tool.
2. Managing the Change: Emphasise the people dimension, involve volunteers in decisions, and employ psychological strategies to avoid planning pitfalls.
3. Reinforcing the Change: Stress the importance of post-implementation reviews, learning lessons, and continuous improvement to avoid repeating mistakes.

Key Lessons from Implementation

The presenters distilled three key lessons from their implementation experience:

1. Communication: Ensure effective communication, led by department heads, emphasising the ‘why’ behind the change. Face-to-face briefings were recommended for optimal impact.
2. Resourcing: Confirm that the resources allocated align with the plan, address misunderstandings, and prioritise based on risk.
3. Monitoring and Corrective Action: Regularly monitor and assess activities, ensuring they align with the designed strategy. Corrective action should be taken based on feedback and performance metrics.

Summary: Effective Implementation for Crime Prevention

In summary, the implementation of Hotspots Policing presents a significant opportunity for evidence-based policing. Targeted analysis is crucial for maximising benefits, and effective implementation, embedded in a holistic change management process, is also key. The presenters highlighted the need to consider benefits management from the outset, emphasising that successful implementation will ultimately contribute to the fundamental policing mission of crime prevention.

For more insights and updates, stay connected with our ongoing conversations at www.processevolution.co.uk or reach out to us via email at info@processevolution.co.uk