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The focus for our first Webinar Wednesday of this year was on the effect the COVID-19 pandemic had on Policing demand in England and Wales. For those interested in more detail, the session was recorded and can be found on the Help & Tips section of our website.
The key messages can be summarised into 3 themes:
- Sizeable changes to certain types of Policing Demand
- High levels of variability in the effect seen by different Police Forces
- The substantial ongoing challenge in interpreting the effect events have had on future demand
Sizeable changes to certain types of Policing Demand
When lockdowns were enforced, policing demand changed almost overnight. ONS Crime Survey demonstrated sizable reductions in many of the major crime types for the year ending June 2021. Both Burglary and Robbery volumes were down over 20%, while levels of Fraud (+32%) and Computer misuse (+85%) saw substantial increases.
High levels of variability in the effect seen by different Police Forces
In May 2020, nationally recorded Drugs Crimes increased by almost 40%, while the use of Stop and Search powers almost doubled. 17 out of the 43 Police Forces saw their recorded drugs crimes increase by more than 50% versus the same period the previous year. While the vast majority of Forces found more drugs crimes, there were still 4 Forces that saw their drug crime volumes drop.
The example above of changes to Drugs crimes and the use of Stop and Search powers highlights an inconsistency in the approaches adopted across the countries. While many Forces embraced the reduction in overall crime as an opportunity to focus more resources on targeted activity, others appear to have taken a different approach.
Challenge of interpreting events and forecasting
Prior to the pandemic, there were already underlying changes to Policing demand taking place at a national level. Volumes of ‘high-harm’ crime types such as violence had been steadily rising, while Theft and Criminal Damage rates had been experiencing a continued decline.
Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB) was on a downward trend prior to lockdown and experienced a sharp increase in the early months of restrictions. Much of this could be explained by a new demand type, the reporting of COVID breaches. Subsequently, levels of ASB have dropped returning to levels more consistent with pre-pandemic periods.
Violence was already on an upwards trend. It seemed to fluctuate during pandemic times. Now after a dip, it is again rising but has not yet caught up with the long-term trend.
Theft volumes had experienced a slow rise since 2016 but dropped considerably during lockdown. The trend has subsequently been upwards, yet nowhere near back to levels previously experienced
Burglary rates had been reducing year on year but dropped markedly during the pandemic and have remained at those levels since. One theory for this is that with more people working from home, there may be less opportunity.
So what does it mean for forecasting?
Understanding the dynamics of demand and forecasting future changes is important for Police Forces, particularly when they are thinking about Force Management Statements and planning their future workforce.
What is evident from the picture we are seeing is that some of the effects on demand were short-term shocks, while others have more sustained systemic effects. From our work across several Forces we’ve seen demand pictures, suggesting while it is a global pandemic, impacts to Policing demand have been variable at a local level. This suggests that Forces will have to investigate the effect at a detailed level when putting together future projections.